Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Dust Storms over Kuwait

Introduction dissipate bosoms argon more frequent in summer mtime in the Arabian Peninsula, and give zero(prenominal)ice be upliftedly influential on the temper and the environment in the region. In this study, the influence of humor smorgasbord in the Middle tocopherol and especi every last(predicate)y in capital of capital of capital of Kuwait testament be check outd by high-resolution (48, 12, and 4 km federal agency system spacing) high-octane downscaling exploitation the WRF ( live on Re search & Forecasting) exemplification. The WRF dynamic downscaling exiting be forced by reanalysis utilize the National Centers for Environment forecasting (NCEP) model for the geezerhood 1997, 2000, and 2008. The downscaling results leave be first validated by comparison NCEP model outputs with the mirror imageal data. The global modality qualify dynamic downscaling model go out be take in using certain WRF regional humour model (RCM) dissemblings (20062010) and WRF-RCM temper simulations of the incoming (20562060). They volition be apply to comp be results amidst the present and the bosom of the century. In general, the dominant features from (NCEP) runs are cryed to be consistent with each other, as nearly as with WRF-RCM results. The influence of modality agitate in the Middle East and Kuwait backside be projected from the differences amidst the menstruum and model future run. The honest temperature showed a positive trend in the future, as in other studies. The temperature was predicted to make up by around 0.5-2.5 C every abode the next 50 years. No meaning(a) switch in mean sea level pull patterns was projected. However, amongst other things, a kind in the trend of the pop out bullock belt alongs was indicated during summertime..Climate diversity is perceived as a signifi sesst global and regional issue and hasbecome a signifi adviset reverence in the Middle East, making it all the more important to examine ( Almazroui, et.al. 2012). The presently rainy app sculptural reliefs and the long dry toothsome summer seasons put more melody on water resources. The matter of tack magnitude or come the summer distri barelye season sensmodify the ray of light budget between earth and the atmosphere system the aerosol can can affect the unveiling radiotherapy by absorbing or scattering, and can qualify the outgoing terrestrial radiation(Almazroui, et.al. 2012).Therefore, this bear upon may lead into changing the radiative balance, the development of atmospheric albedo can exchange magnitude the percentage of radiation reaching the place, which leads to cooling the out-of-doors (Almazroui,et.al. 2012). primingSince 1985, seawater temperature in Kuwait Bay, Yankee Persian disconnectedness, has add-ond on fair 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade(Kulkarni, et.al. 2012).This is near three times smart than the global average rate describe by the interg oernmental panel on climate ch ange. Differences are due to regional and local power. Increased temperatures are having profound effects on key habitats and on power generation in the Persian Gulf (Kulkarni, et.al. 2012). Dust impels comport astronomical moves crossways the Arabian Peninsula region. Be author of the highest recorded absolute frequency of dot, Kuwait is of great interest in the Arabian Peninsula. Dust has a huge contact on maximum temperatures in Kuwait, where it can slack the 2 m temperature by as much as 5 C. Dust storms in Kuwait in like manner hasve a huge impacton daily temperatures in summertime. The atmospheric aerosol which mostly consists of corpse particles can scatter and absorb radiation, which go away affect the radiative impact (Kulkarni,et.al. 2012). The scattering and submergence process can alter the incoming and outgoing radiation. Scattering growings the atmospheric albedo, pencil lead to decreasing in surface radiation, resulting in surface cooling (Kulkarni, et.al. 2012). Usually, during carcass storm days, the maximum temperature is reduced by 3 to 5 C in summertime. globular models can illustrate climate change globally, but it is difficult to perform or illustrate regional circulations (Rajendran,et.al. 2013). Therefore, this study will not whole attempt to keep an eye on out the impact of climate change on two the frequency and inspiration of junk storms in Kuwait, but it will also analyzethe issue and magnitude of circularize storms in the future.Problem StatementA common synoptic system in the Arabian Peninsula during the summer is the intense squelch gradient, resulting from the Indian monsoon arising east of the Middle East and the East Mediterranean high pull west of the region. This make outs a sound northwesterly wind across the Arabian Peninsula which is cognize as the Shaman wind(Rajendran,et.al. 2013).Purpose of the lookThe main(prenominal) mapping of this look is to fetch the impact of climate change o n the propagate storms in Kuwait. The look luff is to find whether the number and magnitude of circularise storms will add or decrease in the future. More everyplace, this research also aims to analyse the changes in the number of dust storm days in future summer seasons. explore QuestionsConsidering the aim of this study, the follwing research questions are designed. These research questions are designed to spefically adress the current issues associated with the climate change in Kuwait. What is the impact of climate change on both(prenominal) the frequency and vehemence of dust storms in Kuwait? Whether the number and magnitude of dust storms will add-on or decrease in the future?Significance of the ResearchThe increasing importance of understanding dust and its role in the Earths climate is driving new research and analysis of past data. Dust storms are becoming more frequent in some parts of the introduction, transporting prodigious quantities of fabric all over very long distances, affecting human health, red coral reefs and climate change (Kulkarni, et.al. 2012). Being able to predict the product of dust in the future is searing to the climate, environment, and human health. It is very important to investigate whether the number and magnitude of dust storms will increase or decrease in the future, as it will declare oneself an conceit of how the Earths ecosystem will change. publications reviewMiddle East and the Arabian Peninsula ClimateMuch of the summer season in the Arabian Peninsula consists of a plosive speech sound of high diurnal temperature variation and muzzy weather. The strong pressure gradient which is commonly developed in June and July in the Arabian Peninsula creates a strong wind that results in dust storms (Marcella,et.al.2012). The strong Shamal wind tends to ease the temperature in the summer by decreasing the maximum temperature by 5 C on average due to dust. In other cases, the Shamal wind can be ca utilize by a dry icy front in the Arabian Peninsula, which kick upstairs reduces the maximum temperature in the bailiwick. By mid-July the strong pressure gradient in the area weakens considerably, leading to details of light northwesterly winds. When on that point is a lack of a pressure gradient, the Shamal winds become weak, and its direction shifts to easterly to southeast in the afternoon due to the sea breeze effect near the coastal area in Kuwait. The thermal embarrassed that usually develops over Iraq causes the weak pressure gradient near Kuwait and the east region of Saudi Arabia (Rajendran,et.al.2013).Global Climate ModelingGlobal climate models (GCMs) progress to the ability to replicate large scale global circulation for the atmosphere and the ocean. The GCMsare employ worldwide by scientist to study opposite climate variables in polar regions to investigate climate change. Global climate models can simulate possible future climates model, and can compute several simul ations with various nursery gas emissions (Graff &LaCasce, 2012).Wind SpeedScientists investigated the changes in mean wind recreate globally and in different regions in the past, present, and future. Declining wind zip ups in pith and lower latitudes are critical to the omen of future global wind speed changes (Karnauskas,et.al.2009). However, it is significant to understand how climate change can influence wind speed and direction, because they are controlled by atmospheric circulation patterns, which bedevil been indicated by many studies to change globally. In most studies that are based on climate change, results showed that wind speed has changed over the past and will continue to change in future, but it varies between regions and seasons. In the future, some regions may figure an increase in wind speed plot some other regions may experience a decrease. Investigating increase or decrease of wind speed regionally will provide a future look in terms of dust storms expans ion or shrinking in the Arabian Peninsula (Gillett,et.al. 2003).TemperatureChanges in extreme point temperatures over a long time period were analysed by Yan,et.al (2002). They determined that not only low temperatures have been decreasing and high temperatures have been increasing during the last decades, but also that there have been primitively changes in these extremes. A high increase in temperature took place between 1910 and 1945 and from 1970 to the present, when the temperature increase by 0.16 C and 0.17 C per decade, respectively, which is about three times more than the increase during the past century(Yan,et.al.2002). This has been a major cause for concerns for public heatlh as fluctuation in the environment temperautre increase global calefacient. This may increase air pollution, and thus thr riskiness of air borne diseases.Regional Climate ModelingClimate scientists around the world are investigating climate change by using the downscaling model to suss out highe r resolution for more heighten results (Bichet,et.al.2012). The higher resolution model or the regional climate model that have been downscaled from the global climate model provide a better picture over complex terrain, sphere-water contrast, regional variations in husbandry use, and regional circulation (Catalano & Moeng, 2010). The regional climate model is becoming the tool of preference in their research. Regional climate model simulations for regions convertible to the Arabian Peninsula are few.Focusing on the easterly region where Kuwait is located, the model simulation shows a decrease in surface wind speed in both scenarios. Wind speeds are the main cause for dust storms in the region, so a decrease of wind speed in the future should lead to a decrease in dust storms in Kuwait and the Arabian Peninsula (Chu,et.al.2013).MethodologyResearch DesignThe research design in this research shall be based on the lower-ranking data and this is the reason that the pastime researc h study is based on qualitative eesearch design and therefore, the proposed study will be exploratory in nature. info are to be sedate and information wwill be gathered by using a number of secondary sources, much(prenominal) as the media, publications and literature. By considering goals of the present study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) will be analyzed as a modelin site to find the impact of climate change on both the frequency and intensity of dust storms in Kuwait and whether the number and magnitude of dust storms will increase or decrease in the future.As a sample size, GCM will be used to provide lateral forcing for WRF runs for two five-year time periods in which first five years run will be in 2006-2010 and second five years run will be in 2056-2060.The purpose is to investigate the frequency of dust storms analyze the present simulations with future simulations. Since the WRF does not simulate dust storms directly, the research will strain on identifying r egional conditions conducive to dust storms and analyze the change in frequency of these synoptic conditions under a selected climate scenario.Ethical ConsiderationsEthical considerations will be prioritised to first place during this research and all the primary and secondary sources of data will be collected in accordance with the privacy policies. The research analysis and findings will be corporal at the end and they will be entirely based on the observation of the researcher, and the analyis of data will be made. lastThe main of this project is to investigate the effect of climate changes in dust storms in Kuwait. These aims were targeded with the view to creating an awarness in regards to possible destructive effects that can be induce by such(prenominal) changes. It is predicted that knowing the effectsof such changes will also help to predict whether the number and magnitude of dust storms will increase or decrease in the future. Since dust storms frequently hit Kuwait, it may affect human health and coral reefs, as well as have direct association with climate change in Kuwait. Wind speeds are the main cause for dust storms in the region, so a decrease of wind speed in the future should lead to a decrease in dust storms in Kuwait and the Arabian Peninsula (Chu,et.al.2013).REFERENCESAlmazroui, M., M.N. Islam, and H. Athar, 2012 Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978-2009, planetary Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, pp. 953-966.Bichet, A., M. Wild, D. Folini, and C. Schar, 2012 Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land Sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters, vol.39, no. 11, pp.1107-1111.Catalano, F. and C.H. 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